2006 World Energy Outlook Offers Prescription for Change

World government leaders have the choice to set a global energy policy course that will reduce overall energy demand and drastically curb harmful greenhouse gas emissions. This course is outlined in a recently released report – The World Energy Outlook 2006 – by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and offers a compelling look at a sustainable energy future that can be accomplished by instituting measures and polices already under consideration by many countries.

The November report presents two competing scenarios for future world energy consumption. In the first ‘business-as-usual’ approach or Reference scenario, global energy demand is projected to increase by over 50 percent by 2030 (one-quarter by 2015 alone), mostly due to increased demand in developing countries. Also under this scenario, CO2 emissions increase by 55% worldwide, with power generation and coal accounting for the majority of the increase.

Under the Alternative Policy Scenario, implementation of policies that improve efficiency in energy production and use and increase the use of non-fossil fuels results in slower growth of world energy demand and levels roughly 10 percent lower than the business as usual approach. The study also shows that energy efficiency contributes significantly to reductions in CO2. In addition, the new policies and measures pay for themselves through a combination of avoided supply costs, and fuel savings, particularly with electricity-related investments (more efficient appliances, equipment and buildings).

A key aspect of the 2006 World Energy Outlook is the urgency with which action is required. Each year of delay in implementing policies has a disproportionate effect on both avoided emissions and energy demand.